For Putin, it appears to be a wager worth making: his costly project in Ukraine has laid a minefield under the country’s economic and demographic future, but it is entirely possible that these mines will explode only after he has left the scene. Call it the King Louis XV model of governance: Après moi, le déluge. (“After me, the flood.”)
Putin will likely be in office until 2036, then live out his final years in luxury. While his predecessor upon taking the reins will realise that the whole of Russia by then is a facade, about to come crumbling down. Worst case Putin will be remembered as the magnificent statesman who held it all together, and his predecessor will get the blame for the crash, leading to a new cycle of yearning for a strong leader and nostalgia for a time that never really was.
Pessimistic, but informative & historical look behind the scenes. It explains the swing Russia has made to modernization and now reversed through Putin, still within my millennial lifetime. The pessimistic part is really the assumption that this long-term unsustainable situation can be sustainable for years to come.
his primary tactic for preserving power is maintaining a sufficient level of socioeconomic well-being—in particular, by buying the loyalty of the lower-middle classes with social support. If economic failures can be overcome through political repression and an archaic national-imperial ideology, it is possible to rule for a long time.
Putin will likely be in office until 2036, then live out his final years in luxury. While his predecessor upon taking the reins will realise that the whole of Russia by then is a facade, about to come crumbling down. Worst case Putin will be remembered as the magnificent statesman who held it all together, and his predecessor will get the blame for the crash, leading to a new cycle of yearning for a strong leader and nostalgia for a time that never really was.
I think you meant to say successor? 😄
Whoops, yes!
Pessimistic, but informative & historical look behind the scenes. It explains the swing Russia has made to modernization and now reversed through Putin, still within my millennial lifetime. The pessimistic part is really the assumption that this long-term unsustainable situation can be sustainable for years to come.