There are some sources of uncertainty that the model doesn’t account for, however. We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.
Or the regular process not counting mail in votes. New York's primary (democrat controlled and ran) chucked 21% of the mailed in ballots. 21% !!!!!!
Imagine a scenario in November where a majority of Trump voters all go to the polls (where 99% of the ballots will be validated and counted) and a majority of Biden voters mail in their ballots. If the 21% number holds that 8% lead can disappear really fast.
Take away: Make sure you know your local election laws, how and when to get a ballot, what is required on the ballot, and when to have it back to the election officials. Make sure your vote counts!
Or the regular process not counting mail in votes. New York's primary (democrat controlled and ran) chucked 21% of the mailed in ballots. 21% !!!!!!
Imagine a scenario in November where a majority of Trump voters all go to the polls (where 99% of the ballots will be validated and counted) and a majority of Biden voters mail in their ballots. If the 21% number holds that 8% lead can disappear really fast.
Take away: Make sure you know your local election laws, how and when to get a ballot, what is required on the ballot, and when to have it back to the election officials. Make sure your vote counts!